±èÁ¤Àº ±¹¹«À§¿øÀåÀÌ ¹®ÀçÀÎ Çѱ¹ ´ëÅë·ÉÀ» Æò¾çÀ¸·Î ÃÊûÇÑ µ¥ ´ëÇØ ¹Ì±¹ÀÇ Àü¹®°¡µéÀº ¿¹Á¤µÈ ¼ö¼øÀ̾ú´Ù¸ç ³î¶ö °Ô ¾ø´Ù´Â ¹ÝÀÀÀ» º¸¿´½À´Ï´Ù. ¹Ì±¹°ú Çѱ¹Àº µÎ ³ª¶ó µ¿¸ÍÀ» ¾àȽÃÅ°·Á´Â ºÏÇÑÀÇ Àǵµ¿¡ ¸»·ÁµéÁö ¾Êµµ·Ï ½ÅÁßÇÏ°Ô Á¢±ÙÇØ¾ß ÇÑ´Ù°í Á¶¾ðÇß½À´Ï´Ù. ÇÔÁöÇÏ ±âÀÚ°¡ ÃëÀçÇß½À´Ï´Ù.
µ¥À̺ñµå ¸Æ½ºÀ£ Çѹ̿¬±¸¼Ò(ICAS) ¼±ÀÓ¿¬±¸¿øÀº ±èÁ¤Àº ±¹¹«À§¿øÀåÀÌ ¡®±è ¾¾ ÀÏ°¡ÀÇ °¢º»(playbook)¡¯¿¡ µû¶ó ÇൿÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù°í ¸»Çß½À´Ï´Ù.
[³ìÃë: ¸Æ½ºÀ£ ¼±ÀÓ¿¬±¸¿ø] ¡°I think Kim Jong-un is following the Kim Family Regime playbook. None of this should be a surprise. Both the visit by Kim Yo-Jong and the invitation for President Moon should be viewed both in terms of past actions and history¡¦¡±
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ƯÈ÷ ±èÁ¤ÀºÀÌ Á¤º¸ÀüÀïÀ» ºñ·ÔÇØ Çѱ¹°ú ±¹Á¦»çȸÀÇ ¾ð·Ð¿¡ ¾î¶»°Ô ¿µÇâÀ» ¹ÌÄ¥ Áö ¾Ë¾Æ°¡´Â µ¥ Á¡Á¡ ´É¼÷ÇØÁö°í ÀÖ´Ù°í ÁöÀûÇß½À´Ï´Ù.
ÇÏÁö¸¸ ±è ¾¾ ÀÏ°¡ÀÇ ÀÌ·± ¿µ¸®ÇÑ ³ë·ÂÀº Çѱ¹°ú ±¹Á¦»çȸ°¡ ºÏÇÑ Á¤±ÇÀÇ Çൿ¿¡ ¼Ó¾Æ¾ß¸¸ ¿µ¸®ÇÑ °á°ú·Î À̾îÁö´Â °ÍÀ̶ó°í ¸»Çß½À´Ï´Ù. ºÏÇÑÀÇ ÆòÈ °ø¼¼¿¡ ±¹Á¦»çȸ°¡ ¾î¶»°Ô ´ëÀÀÇÏ°í, ¹Þ¾ÆµéÀÌ´À³Ä¿¡ µû¶ó ±è ¾¾ ÀÏ°¡°¡ ±â¿ïÀÎ ³ë·ÂÀÇ ¼º°ø ¿©ºÎ°¡ ÆÇ°¡¸§ ³¯ °ÍÀ̶ó´Â ¼³¸íÀÔ´Ï´Ù.
´õ±Û¶ó½º ÆÈ Ä«³×±â ±¹Á¦ÆòÈÀç´Ü ºÎ¿øÀåÀº ºÏÇÑÀÇ ÀÌ·± °ø¼¼¸¦ ½É°¢ÇÏ°Ô ¹Þ¾ÆµéÀ̱⿡´Â ¾ÆÁ÷ À̸£´Ù¸é¼µµ, ±èÁ¤ÀºÀÌ ÃÖ±Ù ºÐÀ§±â¸¦ ºÐ¿ÇÏ°í, Á¤º¹ÀÇ ±âȸ·Î º» °Ç ¸Â´Ù°í Çؼ®Çß½À´Ï´Ù.
±×·¯¸é¼ Áøº¸¼ºÇâÀÇ ¹®ÀçÀÎ Á¤ºÎ´Â ´ëÈ¿Í ±äÀå¿Ïȸ¦ °£ÀýÇÏ°Ô ¹Ù¶ó°í ÀÖ°í, ºÏÇÑÀº ÀÌ·± »óȲÀ» ¾Ç¿ëÇÏ´Â °ÍÀ̶ó°í µ¡ºÙ¿´½À´Ï´Ù.
·Î¹öÆ® ¸Å´× ¾ÖƲ·£Æ½Ä«¿î½½ ¿¬±¸¿øÀº ºÏÇÑÀÇ ¹æºÏ ¿äûÀ» ºñ·ÔÇÑ ÆòÈ°ø¼¼¸¦ ´ëºÏ¾Ð¹Ú¿¡ µû¸¥ °á°ú·Î ºÐ¼®Çß½À´Ï´Ù.
[³ìÃë: ¸Å´× ¿¬±¸¿ø] ¡°I think that the unprecedented, comprehensive sanctions imposed on North Korea have begun to disrupt their economy, and that was likely a factor behind Kim Jong Un¡¯s very unusual charm offensive, along with President Moon¡¯s persistent calls for North-South dialogue.¡±
ºÏÇÑ¿¡ °¡ÇØÁø Àü·Ê ¾ø°í, Æ÷°ýÀûÀÎ Á¦Àç°¡ ºÏÇÑ °æÁ¦¿¡ ÁöÀåÀ» Áֱ⠽ÃÀÛÇß´Ù´Â °Ì´Ï´Ù. µû¶ó¼ ±èÁ¤ÀºÀÇ ¸Å¿ì µå¹® ¸Å·Â °ø¼¼¿¡´Â ÀÌ·± Çö½Ç°ú ÇÔ²² ¹® ´ëÅë·ÉÀÇ Áý¿äÇÑ ³²-ºÏ ´ëÈ ¿ä±¸°¡ ¹è°æÀÌ µÆ´Ù°í ÁÖÀåÇß½À´Ï´Ù.
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[³ìÃë: ¸Å´× ¿¬±¸¿ø] ¡°We can speculate about Pyongyang¡¯s motives, but driving a wedge between the US and ROK has long been a mainstay of the North Korean playbook.¡±
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[³ìÃë: ¸Æ½ºÀ£ ¼±ÀÓ¿¬±¸¿ø] ¡°The norths strategy is in two simple parts - First and foremost ensure survival of the Kim Family Regime. Second is to achieve unification under the control of the Kim Family Regime in order to ensure survival.¡±
ºÏÇÑÀÇ Àü·«À» µÎ °¡Áö·Î º¼ ¼ö Àִµ¥, ±è ¾¾ ÀÏ°¡·Î ÀÌ·ïÁø Á¤±ÇÀÇ »ýÁ¸À̾߸»·Î °¡Àå Áß¿äÇÑ Ã¹ ¹ø° Àü·«À̶ó´Â °Ì´Ï´Ù. ¶Ç µÎ ¹ø°´Â ±èÁ¤Àº üÁ¦ ¾Æ·¡ Çѹݵµ¸¦ ÅëÀÏÇÏ´Â °ÍÀ¸·Î, ÀÌ ¿ª½Ã Á¤±ÇÀÇ »ýÁ¸À» º¸ÀåÇϱ⠶§¹®À̶ó°í µ¡ºÙ¿´½À´Ï´Ù.
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ÆÈ ºÎ¿øÀåÀº ºÏÇÑÀÇ Àǵµ´ë·Î ¹Ì±¹°ú Çѱ¹ÀÇ µ¿¸Í °ü°è°¡ ¾à鵃 °ÍÀ» ¿ì·ÁÇß½À´Ï´Ù.
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[³ìÃë: ¸Æ½ºÀ£ ¼±ÀÓ¿¬±¸¿ø] ¡°There should be no issue if the ROK accepts the invitation as long as there is thorough consultation between the ROK and US¡¦¡±
±×·¯¸é¼ µ¿¸Í¿¡ ¹®Á¦¸¦ ÀÏÀ¸Å°Áö ¾Ê±â À§Çؼ± Çѱ¹ÀÌ ¹Ì±¹ Á¤ºÎ¿¡ ¼û±â´Â °ÍÀÌ ¾ø¾î¾ß ÇÑ´Ù°í Á¶¾ðÇß½À´Ï´Ù. ¶Ç ¹ÌÇÑ µ¿¸ÍÀº Çѱ¹À̳ª ¹Ì±¹ÀÌ Çã¿ëÇÒ ¶§¸¸ ±úÁú ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù¸ç, µ¿¸ÍÀº ºÏÇÑÀÇ Àü·«À» ÀÌÇØÇÑ »óÅ¿¡¼ À̹ø »ç¾ÈÀ» ´Ù·ï¾ß ÇÑ´Ù°í µ¡ºÙ¿´½À´Ï´Ù.
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[³ìÃë: ¸Å´× ¿¬±¸¿ø] ¡°The Trump administration needs to handle this issue very carefully. No tweeting. Vice-President Pence¡¯s behavior at the Olympics was not well-received by many South Koreans.¡±
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